Discussion and Conclusions
Systematic literature review
No significant literature or research related exclusively to impacts of climate change on water resources in the Hay and Slave River basins was found in this systematic review. Nonetheless, relevant research regarding the impacts of climate change in water resources has been conducted in adjacent river basins, mostly in the Athabasca and Peace River basins. Additionally, recent grey literature has been published on water resources state-of-knowledge on the Hay and Slave River basins (Aboriginal Affairs and Northern Development Canada, 2012, 2014; Dagg, 2016; Stantec Consulting Ltd., 2016). All these previous works should help to frame future research for the Hay and Slave River basins. This literature review highlighted the relevance of potential impacts of climate change on water resources in the oil and mining industry in the Athabasca River basin area. Several papers studied this issue in the region (Alexander et al. 2017; Eum et al. 2017; Leong et al. 2015, 2016; Mannix et al. 2010). Consequently, research and a climate change risk assessment on the impacts of the oil and mining industry downstream, at the Slave River basin, might be necessary.
Several recent studies from the systematic review (Du et al. 2019; Chunn et al. 2019; Neupane et al. 2018; Shrestha et al. 2018; Masud et al. 2018; Shrestha et al. 2017) revealed that the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is a commonly used tool for hydrological simulation, which can be coupled with different climatic change models to approximate hydrological scenarios under the influences of climate change. The Government of Alberta has explored this tool (Abbaspour, Faramarzi, & Rouholahnejad, 2010) and has acquired experience with its application (Kyle Swystyn, pers. Comm).
Permafrost thaw is pointed as a major consequence of global warming in northern Canada (Debeer et al., 2016; IPCC, 2014). This literature review has found seven papers that studied permafrost influence in the region’s hydrology (Burd et al., 2018; Suzuki et al., 2018; Magnan et al., 2018; Debeer et al. 2015, Connon et al., 2014; Cohen 1995, 1997). The impacts of this climatic hazard appear to be relevant for the cold regions and thus, further research in the transboundary river basins might be necessary.
Notably, none of the research papers included in this review were explicitly framed with a climatic risk or vulnerability approach. Moreover, most climate change research was focused on generating physical and empirical outcomes, with limited emphasis on more applicable results that could be useful for decision makers. Wheater & Gober (2013) suggest that vulnerability analysis should be incorporated into climate change modelling to address impacts on water resources. They also state that the knowledge resulting from water resources research should be translated into local-scale dynamics and combined with adaptive and participative governance to address uncertainty.
Remarkably, many articles from this systematic review included methodologies with great potential to be adapted to the climate risk assessment framework. For instance, most statistical models used inputs such as land cover type, topographic characteristics, soil type, biodiversity, etc., which are also part of the vulnerability analysis of ecosystems, as part of the climate change risk assessment framework.
Data analysis
When reflecting about these results, it is important to take into consideration that the periods of analysis may vary depending on the available data (Table 2 and 3). Also, recent studies from Rood et al., (2015, 2017) in 10 sites in the Mackenzie River basin (Athabasca, Peace, Slave, Hay, Liard, Fort Liard, Fort Simpson, Norman Wells, Arctic Red River and Fort McPherson sites) concluded that, overall, the basin has a slight increase in discharge from approximately 100-year data record analysis at each site. However, the studies show different trends for each site, which hinder the possibility of generalizations for the broader region.
Findings from this updated analysis on the hydroclimatic events in the Hay and Slave River basins, confirmed the trends that have already been shown in previous studies (Table 5) (Aboriginal Affairs and Northern Development Canada, 2012, 2014; Dagg, 2016; Environment and Natural Resources, 2013; Rood et al., 2017; Stantec Consulting Ltd., 2016). Nevertheless, this analysis showed a decrease trend in streamflow for the Slave River at Fitzgerald station, which is not consistent with previous studies. The flow regulation of the Peace River upstream, through the Bennett Dam located in British Columbia, has might have influence in flow features downstream, along with climate change (Aboriginal Affairs and Northern Development Canada, 2012). Moreover, approximately 66% of the Slave River discharge is attributed to the Peace River. Thus, the results for streamflow in Slave River at Fitzgerald station must be handled carefully for futures research plans and recommendations.
The climatic signals (temperature and precipitation) indicate that changes in climate are occurring, but their effects on water resources vary from site to site and may additionally involve the effects of other interventions, such as dams. These variations need to be understood; therefore, future research should address the implication of these caveats. Understanding and modelling the impacts at the local level (station) and quantifying the effects at a basin level remain a major challenge for management and decision making regarding climate change impacts on water resources (Wheater & Gober, 2013).
Climate risk assessment framework review
The literature search and review to design, build and adapt the climate change risk assessment tool identified a variety of well-developed tools for the Canadian context to assess most components of the IPCC climate-risk assessment framework. Moreover, several monitoring and implementation guidelines developed by multiple Canadian institutions are available to evaluate climate change adaptation, planning and monitoring (CCME, 2011, 2013, 2015). The next logical step in the refinement of this prototype tool should be to consider this type of literature, which benefits from the fact that the monitoring and implementation guidelines provide the methodology to quantify the components of the risk assessment framework. Many of the components of climate risk assessment require the development of indicators and modelling strategies in order to quantify them. Therefore, the risk assessment framework and the methodology for assessing its components are a valuable guide to address future research under the learning process of the BMWA. Similarly, this approach would be valuable to frame future research on climate change and water resources in the Hay and Slave River basins.
The prototype risk assessment tool, when applied to the 20 studies, found several climate hazards that may affect water quality and water quantity the region. Changes of temperature, precipitation, evapotranspiration rates, increase of water temperature, permafrost thaw and shifts in streamflow peaks are among the common climate hazards. When compared to the BWMA management priorities, we can see that the hazards found through the risk assessment tool align with BWMA RIM approach, hence, they should be taken into account when framing future research on impacts of climate change on water resources under the BMWA.
The risk assessment tool also identified water uses priorities, such as dirking water and water traditional use, as the potential water sources affected by impacts of climatic hazards. These potentially impacted sources align with the BMWA’s management priorities. Investigators could frame their future research using these water uses priorities as impact outcomes. For instance, research could focus on the impacts of increased streamflows on traditional use of water due to permafrost thaw in the Hay and Slave River basins. In order to establish the risk of occurrence of impacts on traditional uses of water within the river basins, the climatic hazards, exposure and vulnerability components must be assessed. Guides and tools mentioned in this project include several quantitative and qualitative assessment methods. In many cases the assessment should be carried out through research and/or the development of monitoring indicators.