Summary of findings
Through this project’s first objective, it was possible to systematically gather an important amount of academic research in the field of climate change and water resources throughout Canada. Nonetheless, the research has not been focused in the Hay and Slave River basins. The systematic literature review of this project showed that out of 60 papers reviewed, only 5 centered on the impacts of climate change on water resources in the basins of interest: one in the Hay River basin and four in the Slave River basin. Nevertheless, research conducted in adjacent basins, in this systematic review, provided a valuable pool of references for future research in the Hay and Slave River basins. Some useful recommendations from these papers were: the use of Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) scenarios number 2.6 and 8.5 from IPCC Fifth Assessment Report, as future climate change scenarios; the use of the SWAT model for simulating hydrology under climate change scenarios; and to focus on impacts of climate change on water quantity and water quality for oil industry in the Athabasca River (the most studied river basin).
For the second objective, data analysis of hydro-climatic data from relevant locations to the two transboundary basins was conducted. Results in the BMWA monitoring in locations (Hay River site and Fort Smith and Fitzgerald sites) showed no significant trends in annual precipitation and a steady increase daily mean temperature in both sites. On the other hand, the streamflow data analysis showed no significant trends on annual flows at the Hay River station and a steady decrease in annual flow at the Fitzgerald station in the Slave River basin. This analysis confirmed and updated some of the previous research findings on historical trends of climatic variables and streamflows from literature detailed in Table 5. Nonetheless, the hydrological analysis results from the Fitzgerald station in the Slave River basin are contradictory with previous studies (Rood et al., 2017; Aboriginal Affairs and Northern Development Canada, 2012; Dagg, 2016), in which no trend was found in the analysis of several time series records at the same hydrometric station site. Based on these contradicting results, it is important to conduct further research to better understand why and how similar precipitation and temperature trends in both river basins could have different effects on streamflow at each site. Important factors such as the direct flow regulation upstream of the Peace River, which provides a large flow contribution to the Slave River, should be considered.
Finally, the purpose of developing a prototype to assess climate change risk in transboundary water resources was to provide a tool for the RIM that will integrate the climate change perspective into the BMWA. This instrument will also serve as a guideline to identify specific research needs in order to refine the tool by adding standardized ways of quantifying the risk and impacts of climate change on water resources in transboundary basins. The literature review showed that there are well-developed tools available for the Canadian context that have already been successfully adapted using current IPCC frameworks for climate change risk assessment (IPCC, 2014). The Canadian Council of Ministers of the Environment has developed guidelines and tools for vulnerability assessment, monitoring and management of water resources at the watershed level. Specifically, the tools for assessing and quantifying water resources exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity to climate change at the watershed level were extremely valuable tools from this guide (CCME, 2013). Nonetheless, the proposed prototype is a starting point that needs to be improved and refined according to the needs of the RIM approach of the BMWA.